I'd say Rehnquist resigns in June, with Bush probably appointing conservative Edith Jones and confirming easily.
Either Stevens or O'Connor probably resigns before the 2004 elections, with the Senate still in Republican hands. Filling that vacancy gives 5 votes to reverse some pro-abortion decisions.
When the other resigns during Bush's second term, and maybe Ginsburg resigns also, Roe v. Wade is toast.
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