## Tuesday, January 02, 2024

### Elon Musk Cited Race Crime Data

I found this online erroneous comment:
They'll teach right-wing tribalism exclusively, and reflect Elon's Darwinist philosophy that you have to be useful to be society or perish. He's been peddling false narratives against Africans pretty hard. Elon Musk claims we have to decide between wanting to evolve and not wanting to be evil. ...

For example, Elon Musk recently posted that blacks are 37 times more likely to kill a white person than a white person is likely to kill a black person. That statistic is designed to make you think we'll have a Utopia if blacks are put into concentration camps. However it ignores the fact that there are 7.5 times more [whites than blacks] thab in the US. Therefore that 37 has to be divided by 7.5. And then when you adjust for socioeconomic factors the remaining 5x discrepancy goes away.

No, this is wrong. Another commenter explains:
Your politics are admirable comrade, but your math is poor. If murders were random, it would be like taking two random marbles from a bag with 100 black marbles, and 500 white marbles. In the cases where you chose one of each, it would be 50/50 black then white, or vice versa.

Same thing with sex. Men are far more likely to kill. Victims are mostly men too, but women still far more likely to be killed by a man than vice versa.
Can you accept that as fact? Then why not for race? People are not all the same, that would be very boring.

After some pushback, another explains:
Let's assume the killings are random and everyone has equal capacity for murder.

The probability of killer being black is 2/17. The probability that he kills white person in random killing is 15/16. Hence the probability of killer being black and victim being white is (2/17)*(15/16)=11%

The probability of killer being white is 15/17. The probability that he kills black person in random killing is 2/16. Hence the probability of killer being white and victim being black is (15/17)*(2/16)=11% - the same

If you are seeing discrepancy between black-on-white and white-on-black rates then our assumption that murders are random and everyone has the same capacity for murder does not hold.

That's right. If race did not matter, the incidence of Blacks killing Whites would be the same as Whites killing Blacks. It is not. Not even close.

THere is a symmetry here. Unless Blacks and Whites have some behavioral differences, we expect the incidence of Blacks killing Whites to be the same as Blacks being killed by Whites. Mathematicians like to translate these problems into taking marbles from an urn, but then "murders" is the same as "is murdered".

CFT said...

IF you want to encourage a bad behavior, the easiest thing to do is to allow whoever it is you want to get away with the bad behavior to be untouchable, or at least be resistant to prosecution. Over time you will get the same result as if you allowed someone in a school classroom to say 'the dog ate my homework' over and over again, and allow this to be a suitable excuse for not performing up to standards. You would find that over time, the dog ate the homework more often than the homework was turned in.

When people are judged by the same standards within a system, they have to achieve or exceed those standards to succeed and flourish. This isn't racist, it's no different than playing a game or sport of any kind, and expecting everyone to play by the same rules.

I am mystified why so many who enjoy watching sports would have completely different standards applied to people depending on their skin color. Sports would quickly lose all following if players were chosen not because of their ability, but their ethnic and racial backgrounds, and then graded differently in performance for those same reasons.

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