The feud between historian Allan Lichtman and prognosticator Nate Silver is heating up on social media as Election Day approaches.If Lichtman really had a system, it would be clear how to apply the keys. The keys that supposedly favor Harris are:Lichtman, an American University professor who has correctly predicted the outcome of nine out of the 10 most recent presidential elections, earlier this month forecasted that the Kamala Harris-Tim Walz ticket would win the White House.
Since then, Silver, a political pollster and founder of FiveThirtyEight, released data showing vice president Harris ahead of former President Donald Trump in the national polling average by nearly three points – 48.9% to 46% – but Trump and vice presidential candidate JD Vance have a 56.2% chance of winning the Electoral College compared to Harris-Walz (43.5%).
On Friday, Silver questioned Lichtman's abilities to read his own 13 keys used to make presidential election calls. "At least 7 of the keys, maybe 8, clearly favor Trump. Sorry brother, but that's what the keys say. Unless you're admitting they're totally arbitrary?" Silver posted on X, the social media site previously known as Twitter.
3. The White House party avoided a primary contest.All of these are dubious. Trump is charismatic. The Hunter Biden bribery was a major scandal. RFKjr is a third party challenger, and is on the ballot in most states.
4. There is no third-party challenger.
5. The short-term economy is strong.
6. The long-term economic growth has been as good as the last two terms.
7. The White House party has made major changes to national policy.
8. There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. The White House is untainted by scandal.
11. The challenger is uncharismatic.
The Democrats have no major policy changes, unless you include spending more money. The economy has been okay, but not strong, and inflation has ben bad.
Biden was forced out between the primaries and the convention. Seems like a primary contest to me.
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