Sunday, January 19, 2020

Climate alleged to be biggest threat

LONDON, Jan 15 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Climate-change-related threats such as extreme weather, large-scale biodiversity losses and a failure of political leaders to slow planetary heating are now the top long-term risks facing the globe, business and other leaders said on Wednesday.

An annual risk survey published ahead of the World Economic Forum next week put climate threats ahead of risks ranging from cyberattacks and pandemics to geopolitical conflict and weapons of mass destruction for the first time.

"That's new. Last year we didn't have it," said Mirek Dusek, deputy head of the Centre for Geopolitical and Regional Affairs and an executive committee member of the World Economic Forum, of the rise of environmental issues up the list.
Really? The history of humans on Earth has been progressively more violent and destructive wars. Another world war would surely be a lot bigger threat that the ocean level rising a few inches.

There are also possibilities of plagues, famines, meteor strikes, etc.

Islam is on a collision course with Christianity. Islam cannot coexist with other religions. Every country that allows Islam to flourish is eventually taken over by Mohammedans. Unless some corrective action is taken, we are headed for war. Or more wars, I should say, as we have already fought Islamic wars in Bosnia, Kosovo, Kuwait, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and probably some other countries that I have forgotten.

It also seems likely that Third World population growth will lead to more wars. Already it is leading to most of the above-mentioned climate change threat.

Update: A computer complexity professor heading to Davos writes:
Much as Greta has been doing for the other essential truth here, that civilization’s current m.o. is producing an unfolding catastrophe on a scale where, to find its approximate parallel, you’d have to go back past WWII, past the Black Death, past the extinctions of the Ice Ages, all the way to something like the Chicxulub asteroid? ...

I’m mostly worried about so-called “tail risk,” of runaway warming basically ending both the natural world and agriculture as human beings have known them. And I’m worried mostly because of an additional thing I believe, which is that one generation’s “tail risks” become the next generation’s “tailbone risks” become the rump risks of the generation after that, which indeed is how we got to where we are now. And the world has shown no ability to coordinate on anything as big as decarbonization, to get out of defect-equilibria, and it’s not obvious to me that that will change, even if I imagine the plausibly desperate situations 50 or 100 years from now.
This is way beyond anything predicted by the IPCC.

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