Friday, November 29, 2024

The Major Polls were Tilted against Trump

The pollsters seriously underestimated Pres. Trump in 2016 and 2020, and assured us that they had taken corrective measures to avoid that in 2024.

They did it again in 2024. All except Rasmussen. Why?

The NY Times reported a week ago that Trump was confident of winning because his internal polls showing him winning.

Now the Harris campaign admits that her internal polling also show Trump winning the whole way.

Statistician Nate Silver told us that Trump had a 51% chance of winning. Others said this was going to be one of the closest in history. They were way off.

Polls can be wrong, and statistical estimates inaccurate. But it is hard to explain the major pollsters dramatically underestimating Trump in three straight elections, especially when Rasmussen and the private Republican and Democrat polls were getting it right.

Rasmussen Reports posted regular videos throughout the campaign explaining why the other pollsters were underestimating Trump. Maybe he was just lucky. Or maybe he is a better pollster. I think it is more likely that the other pollsters were biased against Trump, and refused to correct their biases even when they are pointed out.

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