Sunday, February 02, 2025

AI will continue to scale up

The tech world is still rattled by the Chinese AI models that crashed the tech market. The AI community is firmly convinced:
  • Intelligence can be captured by computer models.
  • Intelligence will scale up, with increasing computer capacity, for the foreseeable future.
  • Progress is accelerating, and will continue to accelerate beyond our ability to measure it.
  • Unleashing artificial super intelligence will be the most powerful thing anyone has ever done.

    The premise of OpenAI is that it would discover and tame the super-AI, and make it safe for the world to use.

    The real threat of the Chinese models is that open source LLMs would pass up the closed source OpenAI and Google models, and leave everyone exposed to whatever good or bad comes from super-AI.

    Recent events have not altered any of these opinions. The Chinese models are just what everyone was expecting and fearing. We just didn't know that they had enough Nvidia chips to be players in the AI race.

    We will see more and more AI moving to user devices, like phones, cameras, and toasters. But the real action will be in the supercomputers with the most computational capacity. Companies and governments will invest trillions to try to real that super-AI first.

  • 1 comment:

    CFT said...

    AI will stimulate human stupidity on a scale not seen anywhere else in history.
    What happens with any mental faculty you don't use? It deteriorates.
    Waiting for machines to do the thinking will result in a lot of people not even attempting to think, much less be able to verify what the machines tell them.

    Efficiency is not infinitely scalable.
    Truth be told, the most efficient state for a human is death. After death a person doesn't consume anything or use energy, and a human body can easily be used as fertilizer or mixed into concrete. This is why no concept should be taken to an extreme, it always ends badly especially when left to something that has no conceptual or ethical restraint.

    The moment the king does not need the serfs is the moment the king has the serfs killed. The only thing that has kept the masses alive throughout most of human history is their necessity to the powerful to do their work and make them comfortable. Remove that necessity entirely and watch what happens when the worker is considered obsolete. We already know how kings, governments, and companies treat those they don't value anymore or deem useless, now apply that to pretty much everyone.

    If you want it from the horse's mouth, listen in on what George Bernard Shaw had to say about the useless. This was the height of elitist fashion before Adolf and Stalin made it somewhat unpopular to be said out loud in mixed company.

    "A part of eugenic politics would finally land us in an extensive use of the lethal chamber. A great many people would have to be put out of existence simply because it wastes other people's time to look after them."
    George Bernard Shaw
    "