Mathematically modeling politics

Here is a goofy academic political science paper:

In this paper's introduction we [Lustick and Miodownick] mentioned the contrast between predictions by American policy-makers that a powerful cascade among Iraqis toward democracy and against the Saddam regime would be triggered by the American-led invasion. That did not occur.

This is gibberish, and wrong from the start. There was a powerful cascade toward
democracy. Just look at how many voted. There was an insurgency, but not in
support of the Saddam regime. The Saddam regime was defeated in the first
couple of months of the war. After that, there was no Saddam regime for anyone
to support.