The Most Dangerous Cognitive Bias

Veritasium posted a new video on the psychological effects of overconfidence.

Here is the Wikipedia explanation of a related concept:

The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias that describes the systematic tendency of people with low ability in a specific area to give overly positive assessments of this ability. The term may also describe the tendency of high performers to underestimate their skills. It was first described by the psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger in 1999.

The published effect is really just a misunderstanding of regression to the mean. It is further misunderstood by most of the people quoting this effect.